prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
84% 1 New England 30 34.3, 31 New York Jets 14 2.8
83% 7 Dallas 31 46.5, 32 Miami 6 16.8
78% 9 Minnesota 34 26.9, 28 Oakland 14 11.9
76% 5 Buffalo 21 28.1, 29 Cincinnati 17 12.9
64% 15 Indianapolis 27 28.9, 21 Atlanta 24 21.6
64% 6 San Francisco 24 27.6, 18 Pittsburgh 20 18.7
62% 11 Green Bay 27 24.1, 20 Denver 16 15.3
61% 4 Los Angeles Rams 20 25.4, 26 Cleveland 13 14.2
56% 12 Chicago 31 20.6, 23 Washington 15 19.7
56% 8 Kansas City 33 23.5, 2 Baltimore 28 21.1
46% 22 Carolina 38 26.7, 25 Arizona 20 27.4
39% 30 New York Giants 32 30.3, 27 Tampa Bay 31 33.6
39% 19 Detroit 27 18.3, 16 Philadelphia 24 23.9
39% 17 Houston 27 18.2, 13 Los Angeles Chargers 20 21.7
39% 14 New Orleans 33 23.2, 10 Seattle 27 28.8
35% 24 Jacksonville 20 18.1, 3 Tennessee 7 26.6
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
3 1.21 9 0.71 2 1.30 2 1.20 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 16 10 10.5 0.96
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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