prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
67% 18 Pittsburgh 27 35.5, 28 Cincinnati 3 24.1
67% 1 New England 16 18.1, 12 Buffalo 10 6.4
65% 16 Los Angeles Chargers 30 37.8, 32 Miami 10 22.6
63% 13 Seattle 27 28.3, 29 Arizona 10 21.6
61% 26 New York Giants 24 31.0, 24 Washington 3 28.7
61% 9 Tennessee 24 23.4, 21 Atlanta 10 20.9
61% 6 Chicago 16 18.2, 7 Minnesota 6 14.3
61% 5 Kansas City 34 26.1, 17 Detroit 30 22.4
57% 10 New Orleans 12 23.1, 2 Dallas 10 22.0
39% 23 Jacksonville 26 21.2, 22 Denver 24 25.1
35% 20 Carolina 16 19.8, 14 Houston 10 26.9
35% 19 Philadelphia 34 19.4, 11 Green Bay 27 27.1
33% 25 Tampa Bay 55 15.3, 4 Los Angeles Rams 40 31.6
16% 30 Oakland 31 17.4, 15 Indianapolis 24 32.3
16% 27 Cleveland 40 12.3, 3 Baltimore 25 30.7
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
1 1.76 12 1.05 0 0.00 2 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 15 9 9.9 0.91
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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