2019 Week 4 (26-30 Sep) Results for the National Football League

prob rnk winning_team        actual pred    rnk losing_team         actual pred

 67%  18 Pittsburgh              27 35.5,    28 Cincinnati               3 24.1
 67%   1 New England             16 18.1,    12 Buffalo                 10  6.4
 65%  16 Los Angeles Chargers    30 37.8,    32 Miami                   10 22.6
 63%  13 Seattle                 27 28.3,    29 Arizona                 10 21.6
 61%  26 New York Giants         24 31.0,    24 Washington               3 28.7
 61%   9 Tennessee               24 23.4,    21 Atlanta                 10 20.9
 61%   6 Chicago                 16 18.2,     7 Minnesota                6 14.3
 61%   5 Kansas City             34 26.1,    17 Detroit                 30 22.4
 57%  10 New Orleans             12 23.1,     2 Dallas                  10 22.0

 39%  23 Jacksonville            26 21.2,    22 Denver                  24 25.1
 35%  20 Carolina                16 19.8,    14 Houston                 10 26.9
 35%  19 Philadelphia            34 19.4,    11 Green Bay               27 27.1
 33%  25 Tampa Bay               55 15.3,     4 Los Angeles Rams        40 31.6
 16%  30 Oakland                 31 17.4,    15 Indianapolis            24 32.3
 16%  27 Cleveland               40 12.3,     3 Baltimore               25 30.7

  results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
               50%-59%  60%-69%  70%-79%  80%-89%  90%-99%     100%
                1 1.76  12 1.05   0 0.00   2 0.00   0 0.00   0 0.00

  total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected):  15   9   9.9 0.91

  actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
  actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
  actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)

NOTE: exact predicted scores are not released until after game time.

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