prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
89% 1 New England 27 35.1, 25 Cleveland 13 8.7
84% 7 Pittsburgh 27 35.7, 32 Miami 14 15.6
84% 5 Minnesota 19 28.0, 24 Washington 9 11.3
84% 3 New Orleans 31 33.0, 27 Arizona 9 16.0
77% 17 Houston 27 31.3, 26 Oakland 24 19.3
75% 21 Jacksonville 29 26.6, 31 New York Jets 15 16.6
75% 13 Los Angeles Rams 24 33.7, 30 Cincinnati 10 18.5
73% 22 Detroit 31 29.9, 28 New York Giants 26 21.7
66% 9 Tennessee 27 26.1, 23 Tampa Bay 23 19.5
64% 2 San Francisco 51 23.9, 12 Carolina 13 16.6
63% 18 Indianapolis 15 23.9, 20 Denver 13 18.0
62% 10 Seattle 27 31.7, 29 Atlanta 20 25.8
40% 19 Philadelphia 31 18.3, 15 Buffalo 13 21.3
40% 16 Los Angeles Chargers 17 17.7, 14 Chicago 16 21.5
40% 11 Green Bay 31 25.9, 8 Kansas City 24 31.4
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
0 0.00 7 0.92 4 1.34 4 1.18 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 15 12 10.7 1.12
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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