prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
75% 3 Baltimore 49 31.2, 30 Cincinnati 13 18.4
69% 10 Green Bay 24 30.2, 20 Carolina 16 23.2
65% 23 Tampa Bay 30 31.8, 28 Arizona 27 23.1
63% 17 Chicago 20 25.7, 22 Detroit 13 19.4
60% 31 New York Jets 34 25.8, 29 New York Giants 27 24.0
60% 8 Pittsburgh 17 25.2, 12 Los Angeles Rams 12 21.1
51% 15 Tennessee 35 23.1, 13 Kansas City 32 22.9
40% 26 Cleveland 19 19.1, 19 Buffalo 16 20.5
40% 5 Minnesota 28 18.3, 7 Dallas 24 20.4
38% 25 Oakland 26 20.5, 6 Los Angeles Chargers 24 25.0
37% 11 Seattle 27 18.4, 2 San Francisco 24 26.5
16% 32 Miami 16 15.7, 14 Indianapolis 12 32.1
16% 27 Atlanta 26 19.4, 4 New Orleans 9 36.0
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
2 0.90 8 0.99 1 1.33 2 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 13 7 8.6 0.82
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
Back to: Bassett Football Model Home Page
Please email comments or questions to bfm@BassettFootball.net