prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
84% 12 Kansas City 40 34.7, 30 Oakland 9 20.0
84% 6 Pittsburgh 20 28.1, 26 Cleveland 13 16.2
81% 2 Baltimore 20 26.1, 3 San Francisco 17 16.4
63% 14 Green Bay 31 30.2, 29 New York Giants 13 24.1
61% 4 New Orleans 26 29.7, 25 Atlanta 18 22.7
60% 17 Los Angeles Rams 34 24.6, 28 Arizona 7 22.5
60% 10 Seattle 37 25.1, 5 Minnesota 30 21.7
52% 18 Denver 23 19.7, 8 Los Angeles Chargers 20 19.4
47% 13 Chicago 24 21.2, 23 Detroit 20 21.6
42% 31 Cincinnati 22 21.9, 22 New York Jets 6 23.4
40% 24 Tampa Bay 28 24.3, 21 Jacksonville 11 27.4
40% 11 Tennessee 31 18.8, 15 Indianapolis 17 22.3
33% 32 Miami 37 18.8, 9 Philadelphia 31 27.7
30% 16 Buffalo 26 14.3, 7 Dallas 15 22.3
23% 19 Houston 28 19.1, 1 New England 22 27.1
19% 27 Washington 29 17.7, 20 Carolina 21 27.6
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
3 0.61 7 0.93 2 0.00 4 0.91 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 16 8 10.7 0.75
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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