prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
84% 12 Philadelphia 23 31.1, 30 New York Giants 17 19.2
82% 14 Green Bay 20 28.8, 26 Washington 15 15.6
74% 5 Minnesota 20 30.8, 22 Detroit 7 18.6
66% 1 Baltimore 24 24.3, 15 Buffalo 17 15.0
64% 25 New York Jets 22 26.7, 31 Miami 21 19.7
64% 10 Tennessee 42 25.3, 32 Oakland 21 19.3
64% 6 Pittsburgh 23 25.6, 29 Arizona 17 20.2
60% 27 Cleveland 27 24.6, 28 Cincinnati 19 19.5
60% 21 Tampa Bay 38 27.9, 17 Indianapolis 35 24.9
60% 13 Chicago 31 20.1, 9 Dallas 24 18.1
60% 7 Los Angeles Chargers 45 22.1, 23 Jacksonville 10 18.4
54% 24 Atlanta 40 27.2, 20 Carolina 20 26.6
51% 16 Los Angeles Rams 28 23.8, 8 Seattle 12 23.6
40% 3 San Francisco 48 21.4, 4 New Orleans 46 24.7
37% 18 Denver 38 19.5, 19 Houston 24 25.3
18% 11 Kansas City 23 19.1, 2 New England 16 30.3
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
2 1.90 10 1.29 1 1.36 3 0.81 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 16 13 10.5 1.24
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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