prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
84% 1 Baltimore 42 34.5, 24 New York Jets 21 12.2
82% 2 New England 34 29.5, 30 Cincinnati 13 14.1
75% 9 Kansas City 23 27.9, 17 Denver 3 18.8
75% 5 New Orleans 34 31.1, 18 Indianapolis 7 21.7
64% 14 Green Bay 21 24.3, 13 Chicago 13 18.9
63% 12 Philadelphia 37 23.3, 25 Washington 27 17.5
63% 11 Dallas 44 23.6, 16 Los Angeles Rams 21 18.3
61% 28 New York Giants 36 27.4, 31 Miami 20 23.0
60% 29 Arizona 38 24.7, 26 Cleveland 24 21.6
60% 8 Seattle 30 28.1, 21 Carolina 24 24.6
46% 20 Tampa Bay 38 27.8, 23 Detroit 17 28.7
40% 27 Jacksonville 20 23.4, 32 Oakland 16 25.2
40% 7 Minnesota 39 18.9, 4 Los Angeles Chargers 10 22.4
37% 19 Houston 24 19.2, 10 Tennessee 21 25.2
34% 15 Buffalo 17 15.6, 6 Pittsburgh 10 22.5
28% 22 Atlanta 29 18.6, 3 San Francisco 22 32.6
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
1 0.00 10 0.97 3 0.90 2 1.21 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 16 10 10.6 0.94
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
Back to: Bassett Football Model Home Page
Please email comments or questions to bfm@BassettFootball.net