prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
84% 2 New England 24 24.9, 13 Buffalo 17 12.1
84% 1 Baltimore 31 32.7, 30 Cleveland 15 16.3
79% 16 Denver 27 27.5, 27 Detroit 17 18.7
73% 5 San Francisco 34 28.3, 17 Los Angeles Rams 31 18.9
64% 21 Atlanta 24 26.9, 26 Jacksonville 12 19.6
62% 18 Indianapolis 38 28.9, 22 Carolina 6 23.6
60% 31 Miami 38 23.9, 28 Cincinnati 35 21.5
60% 14 Philadelphia 17 23.9, 9 Dallas 9 21.7
60% 3 New Orleans 38 23.5, 11 Tennessee 28 21.7
52% 7 Kansas City 26 21.9, 12 Chicago 3 21.7
40% 25 New York Giants 41 20.8, 23 Washington 35 22.4
40% 24 New York Jets 16 20.1, 8 Pittsburgh 10 23.6
40% 20 Houston 23 26.3, 19 Tampa Bay 20 30.9
26% 15 Green Bay 23 19.7, 4 Minnesota 10 28.3
16% 32 Oakland 24 16.5, 10 Los Angeles Chargers 17 30.3
16% 29 Arizona 27 17.5, 6 Seattle 13 32.5
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
1 1.94 8 1.03 3 0.89 4 0.60 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 16 10 11.0 0.91
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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