prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
84% 17 Denver 16 28.5, 32 Oakland 15 16.8
84% 7 Dallas 47 27.6, 25 Washington 16 14.0
79% 1 Baltimore 28 29.8, 9 Pittsburgh 10 14.5
77% 18 Los Angeles Rams 31 28.1, 27 Arizona 24 18.9
66% 5 Kansas City 31 27.2, 13 Los Angeles Chargers 21 18.7
64% 3 New Orleans 42 32.2, 23 Carolina 10 23.4
62% 12 Philadelphia 34 27.2, 24 New York Giants 17 22.6
62% 11 Green Bay 23 27.8, 26 Detroit 20 23.4
60% 29 Cincinnati 33 25.0, 30 Cleveland 23 21.8
40% 28 Jacksonville 38 20.5, 16 Indianapolis 20 24.2
40% 19 Atlanta 28 24.5, 21 Tampa Bay 22 29.0
40% 14 Tennessee 35 22.4, 20 Houston 14 24.3
40% 6 San Francisco 26 23.8, 8 Seattle 21 26.4
32% 22 New York Jets 13 14.6, 10 Buffalo 6 23.5
20% 15 Chicago 21 14.6, 4 Minnesota 19 25.5
15% 31 Miami 27 13.2, 2 New England 24 35.1
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
0 0.00 10 0.80 2 1.28 4 0.60 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 16 9 11.1 0.81
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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