prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
72% 2 New Orleans 30 29.8, 21 Houston 28 19.2
71% 7 Philadelphia 32 25.0, 19 Washington 27 17.9
70% 3 Seattle 21 28.1, 27 Cincinnati 20 17.1
68% 9 Dallas 35 24.1, 20 New York Giants 17 18.1
66% 11 Minnesota 28 25.1, 18 Atlanta 12 19.0
64% 6 Los Angeles Chargers 30 25.5, 13 Indianapolis 24 20.4
62% 12 Tennessee 43 21.9, 30 Cleveland 13 19.8
62% 10 Kansas City 40 24.3, 23 Jacksonville 26 22.1
62% 4 Baltimore 59 23.6, 29 Miami 10 20.1
62% 1 New England 33 26.4, 5 Pittsburgh 3 21.3
52% 31 Arizona 27 21.4, 22 Detroit 27 21.1
38% 32 Oakland 24 20.5, 14 Denver 16 23.9
38% 25 San Francisco 31 21.7, 26 Tampa Bay 17 25.3
38% 17 Los Angeles Rams 30 22.7, 16 Carolina 27 25.0
37% 24 Buffalo 17 19.8, 28 New York Jets 16 23.7
37% 15 Green Bay 10 19.8, 8 Chicago 3 24.7
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
1 0.00 12 0.93 3 1.41 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 16 10 10.2 0.98
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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