prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
73% 5 Kansas City 51 31.8, 20 Houston 31 20.1
60% 10 Green Bay 28 25.8, 7 Seattle 23 23.1
60% 6 San Francisco 27 25.1, 4 Minnesota 10 22.4
16% 9 Tennessee 28 15.5, 1 Baltimore 12 28.9
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
0 0.00 2 1.66 1 1.38 1 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 4 3 2.8 1.09
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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