prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
67% 10 Chicago 17 29.3, 28 New York Giants 13 16.9
64% 6 Green Bay 42 39.1, 29 Detroit 21 22.2
64% 5 Pittsburgh 26 25.3, 20 Denver 21 14.5
63% 1 Baltimore 33 26.5, 23 Houston 16 15.0
62% 18 Tampa Bay 31 42.1, 32 Carolina 17 26.0
62% 4 Tennessee 33 20.2, 15 Jacksonville 30 11.4
61% 16 Dallas 40 34.9, 27 Atlanta 39 26.4
61% 11 Arizona 30 19.4, 14 Washington 15 12.0
61% 3 Seattle 35 22.7, 2 New England 30 16.5
58% 13 Los Angeles Rams 37 24.7, 21 Philadelphia 19 22.8
55% 22 Indianapolis 28 35.8, 17 Minnesota 11 33.8
53% 12 Buffalo 31 18.1, 19 Miami 28 17.4
48% 8 Kansas City 23 18.8, 9 Los Angeles Chargers 20 19.2
47% 31 Cleveland 35 26.5, 26 Cincinnati 30 27.4
39% 30 Las Vegas 34 24.6, 7 New Orleans 24 37.8
39% 24 San Francisco 31 27.0, 25 New York Jets 13 30.8
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
5 1.11 11 1.31 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 16 12 9.6 1.25
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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