prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
79% 5 Pittsburgh 28 30.3, 23 Houston 21 18.5
70% 10 Indianapolis 36 31.5, 31 New York Jets 7 15.2
64% 4 Seattle 38 33.1, 16 Dallas 31 23.3
63% 8 New England 36 41.2, 27 Las Vegas 20 24.1
61% 21 Philadelphia 23 29.5, 26 Cincinnati 23 24.7
61% 11 Chicago 30 26.0, 24 Atlanta 26 24.0
61% 9 San Francisco 36 26.3, 25 New York Giants 9 19.6
61% 7 Buffalo 35 17.6, 6 Los Angeles Rams 32 15.5
61% 2 Green Bay 37 32.4, 20 New Orleans 30 25.0
58% 14 Tampa Bay 28 23.7, 17 Denver 10 22.1
50% 30 Cleveland 34 25.1, 22 Washington 20 25.0
50% 13 Tennessee 31 25.8, 19 Minnesota 30 25.8
39% 28 Miami 31 22.7, 18 Jacksonville 13 28.8
37% 3 Kansas City 34 14.7, 1 Baltimore 20 24.4
30% 32 Carolina 21 19.1, 12 Los Angeles Chargers 16 34.3
29% 29 Detroit 26 22.4, 15 Arizona 23 33.8
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
3 1.26 10 1.12 3 0.46 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 16 10 10.0 1.00
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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