prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
83% 4 Green Bay 30 39.6, 24 Atlanta 16 23.7
75% 12 Los Angeles Rams 17 33.7, 30 New York Giants 9 19.1
68% 10 Tampa Bay 38 24.2, 15 Los Angeles Chargers 31 14.2
66% 1 Kansas City 26 30.3, 8 New England 10 17.9
65% 2 Baltimore 31 31.1, 29 Washington 17 17.9
61% 20 Cincinnati 33 26.6, 28 Jacksonville 25 20.5
61% 19 Denver 37 29.1, 32 New York Jets 28 27.1
61% 13 Buffalo 30 37.4, 31 Las Vegas 23 28.2
61% 7 Seattle 31 28.4, 18 Miami 23 24.2
59% 5 Indianapolis 19 15.9, 11 Chicago 11 14.2
54% 16 Minnesota 31 33.6, 27 Houston 23 32.5
45% 26 Carolina 31 23.4, 17 Arizona 21 24.4
39% 21 New Orleans 35 29.8, 23 Detroit 29 33.3
34% 25 Cleveland 49 23.3, 14 Dallas 38 33.1
23% 22 Philadelphia 25 15.1, 3 San Francisco 20 30.0
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
3 1.19 9 1.23 2 0.66 1 1.20 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 15 11 9.7 1.13
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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