prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
84% 2 Baltimore 27 31.5, 21 Cincinnati 3 14.7
80% 5 Pittsburgh 38 26.9, 15 Philadelphia 29 17.5
66% 23 Dallas 37 35.5, 29 New York Giants 34 27.3
64% 11 Los Angeles Rams 30 26.5, 28 Washington 10 20.0
63% 9 Tennessee 42 26.8, 14 Buffalo 16 18.3
62% 27 Houston 30 32.2, 30 Jacksonville 14 25.1
62% 16 New Orleans 30 31.2, 17 Los Angeles Chargers 27 25.8
62% 7 Seattle 27 32.5, 13 Minnesota 26 24.2
59% 20 Arizona 30 26.5, 31 New York Jets 10 25.1
41% 12 Chicago 20 20.1, 10 Tampa Bay 19 21.9
39% 24 Carolina 23 28.1, 26 Atlanta 16 31.2
39% 22 Cleveland 32 19.9, 4 Indianapolis 23 25.4
33% 19 Miami 43 15.6, 6 San Francisco 17 27.5
22% 32 Las Vegas 40 19.2, 1 Kansas City 32 46.8
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
2 0.84 9 1.06 1 0.00 2 1.22 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 14 9 9.3 0.97
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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