prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
83% 5 Tennessee 42 32.8, 26 Houston 36 19.4
81% 12 Miami 24 34.2, 32 New York Jets 0 17.7
70% 7 Indianapolis 31 26.9, 25 Cincinnati 27 14.8
64% 4 Pittsburgh 38 32.2, 22 Cleveland 7 21.7
64% 1 Baltimore 30 29.0, 19 Philadelphia 28 21.4
61% 28 New York Giants 20 27.7, 31 Washington 19 22.5
60% 3 Kansas City 26 27.7, 17 Buffalo 17 22.0
56% 15 San Francisco 24 22.2, 9 Los Angeles Rams 16 21.1
54% 23 Detroit 34 26.6, 29 Jacksonville 16 25.9
45% 11 Chicago 23 19.9, 21 Carolina 16 20.5
40% 18 Arizona 38 26.5, 24 Dallas 10 29.3
40% 10 Tampa Bay 38 25.3, 2 Green Bay 10 27.2
35% 20 Denver 18 19.2, 8 New England 12 28.6
29% 27 Atlanta 40 24.8, 13 Minnesota 23 36.0
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
3 1.20 7 0.92 2 0.71 2 1.22 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 14 9 9.1 0.99
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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