prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
74% 17 Los Angeles Chargers 39 30.7, 31 Jacksonville 29 19.9
73% 20 Philadelphia 22 31.0, 27 New York Giants 21 22.8
66% 16 New Orleans 27 31.9, 23 Carolina 24 23.9
64% 12 Los Angeles Rams 24 21.4, 11 Chicago 10 15.8
62% 19 Buffalo 18 28.9, 32 New York Jets 10 22.0
62% 8 Green Bay 35 31.5, 26 Houston 20 26.2
62% 6 Tampa Bay 45 41.6, 30 Las Vegas 20 29.2
60% 2 Kansas City 43 24.7, 14 Denver 16 20.1
53% 29 Washington 25 29.3, 28 Dallas 3 28.9
40% 25 Cleveland 37 26.3, 24 Cincinnati 34 28.6
40% 21 Detroit 23 26.2, 22 Atlanta 22 29.1
40% 13 Arizona 37 23.2, 5 Seattle 34 26.1
40% 3 Pittsburgh 27 22.8, 4 Tennessee 24 26.8
39% 15 San Francisco 33 20.1, 7 New England 6 25.8
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
1 1.90 11 0.89 2 1.37 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 14 9 8.8 1.03
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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