prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
84% 1 Kansas City 33 33.4, 23 Carolina 31 15.3
65% 16 Minnesota 34 30.5, 24 Detroit 20 22.8
65% 10 Tennessee 24 25.2, 11 Chicago 17 18.5
64% 3 Pittsburgh 24 33.5, 29 Dallas 19 23.0
61% 15 New England 30 26.9, 32 New York Jets 27 20.2
60% 21 Atlanta 34 26.6, 18 Denver 27 23.3
56% 27 Houston 27 28.7, 31 Jacksonville 25 27.9
55% 2 Baltimore 24 23.8, 6 Indianapolis 10 23.2
41% 8 Miami 34 21.4, 13 Arizona 31 22.4
40% 25 New York Giants 23 21.6, 26 Washington 20 23.5
40% 19 Buffalo 44 24.9, 5 Seattle 34 29.3
40% 7 Green Bay 34 22.5, 9 San Francisco 17 25.2
38% 30 Las Vegas 31 29.2, 20 Los Angeles Chargers 26 41.9
38% 14 New Orleans 38 24.3, 4 Tampa Bay 3 32.7
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
3 1.18 10 0.81 0 0.00 1 1.20 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 14 8 8.7 0.92
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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