prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
84% 4 Green Bay 24 36.7, 32 Jacksonville 20 16.7
84% 3 Pittsburgh 36 30.6, 23 Cincinnati 10 17.0
76% 24 Detroit 30 27.7, 27 Washington 27 20.1
66% 7 Miami 29 30.4, 21 Los Angeles Chargers 21 20.4
60% 28 Cleveland 10 29.7, 26 Houston 7 27.7
60% 17 Arizona 32 25.1, 15 Buffalo 30 21.7
60% 9 New Orleans 27 29.1, 12 San Francisco 13 24.2
60% 6 Tampa Bay 46 28.3, 22 Carolina 23 23.1
53% 11 Los Angeles Rams 23 28.2, 8 Seattle 16 27.5
41% 30 Las Vegas 37 32.4, 19 Denver 12 36.3
40% 25 New York Giants 27 23.7, 18 Philadelphia 17 26.5
40% 14 Minnesota 19 20.1, 13 Chicago 13 22.2
40% 5 Indianapolis 34 22.8, 10 Tennessee 17 25.9
39% 16 New England 23 20.4, 1 Baltimore 17 27.4
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
2 0.89 9 0.91 1 1.32 2 1.18 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 14 9 9.1 0.99
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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