prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
85% 17 Minnesota 27 31.2, 30 Jacksonville 24 17.6
84% 2 Kansas City 22 33.0, 23 Denver 16 16.6
83% 3 Baltimore 34 35.2, 29 Dallas 17 18.6
81% 10 Miami 19 29.5, 26 Cincinnati 7 18.3
79% 5 Green Bay 30 31.7, 19 Philadelphia 16 21.9
60% 6 Indianapolis 26 26.8, 24 Houston 20 23.8
60% 4 New Orleans 21 27.5, 16 Atlanta 16 24.4
49% 12 New England 45 24.9, 21 Los Angeles Chargers 0 25.0
41% 32 Las Vegas 31 32.1, 31 New York Jets 28 35.9
40% 11 Los Angeles Rams 38 22.2, 18 Arizona 28 23.9
39% 15 Buffalo 34 21.1, 13 San Francisco 24 25.8
27% 28 Detroit 34 18.5, 14 Chicago 30 26.3
22% 27 Cleveland 41 19.1, 8 Tennessee 35 31.5
20% 22 New York Giants 17 19.9, 7 Seattle 12 33.1
15% 25 Washington 23 12.4, 1 Pittsburgh 17 28.8
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
2 0.00 4 0.83 4 0.32 5 0.96 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 15 7 10.8 0.65
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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