prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
84% 11 Seattle 40 34.5, 31 New York Jets 3 16.5
71% 1 Baltimore 47 28.2, 25 Cleveland 42 19.7
66% 14 Chicago 36 24.4, 24 Houston 7 18.8
63% 12 Tennessee 31 29.4, 30 Jacksonville 10 21.9
63% 6 Green Bay 31 31.1, 27 Detroit 24 24.6
62% 8 Tampa Bay 26 30.5, 17 Minnesota 14 22.8
60% 9 Los Angeles Rams 24 23.1, 5 New England 3 19.4
60% 7 Indianapolis 44 41.1, 32 Las Vegas 27 30.6
60% 2 Kansas City 33 25.4, 10 Miami 27 23.6
48% 13 Buffalo 26 23.1, 3 Pittsburgh 15 23.4
46% 18 Arizona 26 22.8, 20 New York Giants 7 23.3
40% 29 Los Angeles Chargers 20 26.5, 16 Atlanta 17 29.8
40% 28 Dallas 30 24.6, 26 Cincinnati 7 27.3
40% 19 Philadelphia 24 22.6, 4 New Orleans 21 27.1
39% 23 Denver 32 20.3, 22 Carolina 27 25.2
33% 21 Washington 23 17.7, 15 San Francisco 15 25.0
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
2 0.00 12 0.94 1 1.41 1 1.19 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 16 9 10.0 0.90
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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