prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
85% 1 Baltimore 40 34.4, 30 Jacksonville 14 14.1
84% 8 Indianapolis 27 32.3, 26 Houston 20 19.5
84% 5 Green Bay 24 32.3, 23 Carolina 16 20.4
71% 14 Tennessee 46 33.3, 28 Detroit 25 21.9
63% 16 Arizona 33 27.0, 20 Philadelphia 26 21.6
60% 24 Dallas 41 27.1, 19 San Francisco 33 24.9
60% 13 Buffalo 48 24.9, 22 Denver 19 22.5
60% 12 Miami 22 23.4, 6 New England 12 19.8
60% 9 Seattle 20 25.1, 18 Washington 15 21.2
57% 10 Tampa Bay 31 26.0, 15 Atlanta 27 24.8
56% 27 Los Angeles Chargers 30 39.1, 32 Las Vegas 27 37.1
43% 2 Kansas City 32 25.4, 3 New Orleans 29 26.4
40% 25 Cleveland 20 22.2, 21 New York Giants 6 24.4
40% 11 Chicago 33 19.5, 17 Minnesota 27 23.0
26% 29 Cincinnati 27 18.1, 4 Pittsburgh 17 26.9
17% 31 New York Jets 23 11.7, 7 Los Angeles Rams 20 31.7
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
3 1.18 7 1.18 2 0.69 4 0.89 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 16 11 10.7 1.02
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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