prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
84% 1 Baltimore 27 30.6, 24 New York Giants 13 14.2
81% 2 Kansas City 17 32.0, 16 Atlanta 14 20.0
71% 3 New Orleans 52 30.8, 18 Minnesota 33 21.6
64% 9 Chicago 41 23.9, 31 Jacksonville 17 17.5
62% 8 Seattle 20 27.6, 12 Los Angeles Rams 9 21.3
61% 6 Green Bay 40 30.0, 13 Tennessee 14 24.9
60% 26 Los Angeles Chargers 19 27.2, 25 Denver 16 24.2
60% 21 Dallas 37 28.1, 19 Philadelphia 17 24.6
60% 14 Miami 26 41.1, 32 Las Vegas 25 31.0
60% 10 Tampa Bay 47 30.7, 29 Detroit 7 25.0
60% 4 Pittsburgh 28 25.1, 7 Indianapolis 24 21.5
40% 30 New York Jets 23 20.9, 23 Cleveland 16 24.6
40% 22 Carolina 20 19.4, 17 Washington 13 22.8
40% 11 Buffalo 38 20.6, 5 New England 9 22.5
37% 27 Cincinnati 37 21.6, 28 Houston 31 26.7
36% 20 San Francisco 20 22.0, 15 Arizona 12 28.1
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
0 0.00 13 1.01 1 1.41 2 1.21 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 16 11 10.3 1.07
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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