prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
77% 3 New Orleans 21 26.6, 11 Chicago 9 18.5
62% 5 Tampa Bay 31 24.6, 18 Washington 23 19.1
60% 9 Buffalo 27 27.3, 8 Indianapolis 24 23.2
60% 1 Baltimore 20 27.0, 13 Tennessee 13 24.3
34% 12 Los Angeles Rams 30 19.7, 6 Seattle 20 27.0
21% 23 Cleveland 48 18.2, 7 Pittsburgh 37 28.4
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
0 0.00 4 1.21 2 0.64 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 6 4 4.0 0.99
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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