prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
81% 2 Kansas City 22 32.2, 22 Cleveland 17 18.7
76% 4 Green Bay 32 27.3, 11 Los Angeles Rams 18 19.7
50% 7 Buffalo 17 24.2, 1 Baltimore 3 24.1
40% 5 Tampa Bay 30 24.7, 3 New Orleans 20 28.1
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
1 1.98 1 0.00 1 1.31 1 1.23 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 4 3 2.7 1.12
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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