prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
83% 10 Denver 26 26.7, 29 New York Jets 0 10.9
66% 4 Arizona 31 32.4, 32 Jacksonville 19 18.5
65% 6 Buffalo 43 25.0, 23 Washington 21 11.9
61% 22 Las Vegas 31 31.9, 24 Miami 28 26.1
61% 21 Tennessee 25 32.8, 18 Indianapolis 16 29.5
61% 16 Cleveland 26 27.4, 20 Chicago 6 21.8
61% 13 Baltimore 19 37.7, 31 Detroit 17 31.2
61% 3 Los Angeles Rams 34 23.5, 5 Tampa Bay 24 19.6
59% 14 Dallas 41 20.3, 7 Philadelphia 21 18.6
53% 1 New Orleans 28 14.8, 2 New England 13 13.9
41% 15 Carolina 24 21.7, 27 Houston 9 23.2
39% 30 Atlanta 17 28.6, 28 New York Giants 14 33.3
39% 26 Minnesota 30 26.7, 8 Seattle 17 30.1
38% 25 Cincinnati 24 16.4, 12 Pittsburgh 10 24.1
38% 19 Green Bay 30 21.4, 9 San Francisco 28 30.7
32% 17 Los Angeles Chargers 30 20.1, 11 Kansas City 24 30.5
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
3 1.17 12 0.94 0 0.00 1 1.20 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 16 10 10.0 1.00
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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