prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
84% 20 Cincinnati 24 30.5, 32 Jacksonville 21 17.6
77% 4 Buffalo 40 33.9, 30 Houston 0 16.9
61% 24 Chicago 24 28.4, 29 Detroit 14 23.0
61% 19 Green Bay 27 27.2, 14 Pittsburgh 17 23.2
61% 18 Los Angeles Chargers 28 29.9, 23 Las Vegas 14 26.0
61% 12 Dallas 36 20.7, 5 Carolina 28 17.8
58% 11 Tampa Bay 19 27.1, 16 New England 17 24.8
47% 22 Indianapolis 27 27.7, 26 Miami 17 28.2
43% 9 Kansas City 42 24.6, 10 Philadelphia 30 25.7
40% 25 Washington 34 24.9, 27 Atlanta 30 27.1
39% 13 Cleveland 14 23.5, 17 Minnesota 7 25.9
39% 8 Seattle 28 23.1, 15 San Francisco 21 25.2
39% 7 Baltimore 23 18.2, 6 Denver 7 21.0
39% 3 Arizona 37 19.4, 2 Los Angeles Rams 20 23.8
38% 31 New York Jets 27 20.5, 21 Tennessee 24 28.4
17% 28 New York Giants 27 10.7, 1 New Orleans 21 31.9
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
3 0.60 10 0.66 1 1.29 2 0.60 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 16 7 10.2 0.69
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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