prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
77% 10 Dallas 44 29.6, 25 New York Giants 20 19.0
73% 18 Minnesota 19 32.2, 29 Detroit 17 22.3
68% 3 Arizona 17 29.6, 16 San Francisco 10 19.6
66% 7 Tampa Bay 45 32.2, 26 Miami 17 20.3
65% 4 Baltimore 31 27.9, 17 Indianapolis 25 19.6
63% 2 New Orleans 33 28.0, 24 Washington 22 20.4
62% 28 Atlanta 27 26.9, 30 New York Jets 20 20.8
62% 22 Tennessee 37 31.5, 32 Jacksonville 19 24.8
61% 15 New England 25 26.3, 31 Houston 22 21.6
61% 14 Pittsburgh 27 20.4, 11 Denver 19 16.8
59% 13 Green Bay 25 23.4, 21 Cincinnati 22 22.1
53% 1 Buffalo 38 26.1, 5 Kansas City 20 25.5
49% 19 Los Angeles Chargers 47 18.5, 9 Cleveland 42 18.7
40% 23 Chicago 20 27.3, 27 Las Vegas 9 30.8
39% 20 Philadelphia 21 19.3, 12 Carolina 18 23.5
39% 8 Los Angeles Rams 26 22.2, 6 Seattle 17 26.1
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
3 1.23 11 1.16 2 1.33 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 16 12 10.0 1.20
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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