2021 Week 5 (7-11 Oct) Results for the National Football League

prob rnk winning_team        actual pred    rnk losing_team         actual pred

 77%  10 Dallas                  44 29.6,    25 New York Giants         20 19.0
 73%  18 Minnesota               19 32.2,    29 Detroit                 17 22.3
 68%   3 Arizona                 17 29.6,    16 San Francisco           10 19.6
 66%   7 Tampa Bay               45 32.2,    26 Miami                   17 20.3
 65%   4 Baltimore               31 27.9,    17 Indianapolis            25 19.6
 63%   2 New Orleans             33 28.0,    24 Washington              22 20.4
 62%  28 Atlanta                 27 26.9,    30 New York Jets           20 20.8
 62%  22 Tennessee               37 31.5,    32 Jacksonville            19 24.8
 61%  15 New England             25 26.3,    31 Houston                 22 21.6
 61%  14 Pittsburgh              27 20.4,    11 Denver                  19 16.8
 59%  13 Green Bay               25 23.4,    21 Cincinnati              22 22.1
 53%   1 Buffalo                 38 26.1,     5 Kansas City             20 25.5

 49%  19 Los Angeles Chargers    47 18.5,     9 Cleveland               42 18.7
 40%  23 Chicago                 20 27.3,    27 Las Vegas                9 30.8
 39%  20 Philadelphia            21 19.3,    12 Carolina                18 23.5
 39%   8 Los Angeles Rams        26 22.2,     6 Seattle                 17 26.1

  results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
               50%-59%  60%-69%  70%-79%  80%-89%  90%-99%     100%
                3 1.23  11 1.16   2 1.33   0 0.00   0 0.00   0 0.00
                
  total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected):  16  12  10.0 1.20

  actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
  actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
  actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)

NOTE: exact predicted scores are not released until after game time.

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