prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
84% 7 Baltimore 16 29.6, 26 Cleveland 10 17.3
64% 2 Green Bay 36 25.4, 12 Los Angeles Rams 28 19.6
63% 16 San Francisco 34 27.0, 17 Minnesota 26 21.9
62% 18 Denver 28 25.4, 22 Los Angeles Chargers 13 20.7
61% 1 New England 36 24.4, 11 Tennessee 13 18.4
57% 24 Miami 33 22.6, 20 Carolina 10 19.9
56% 19 Cincinnati 41 23.7, 14 Pittsburgh 10 21.9
55% 21 Chicago 16 22.1, 29 Detroit 14 20.7
47% 27 Atlanta 21 22.8, 28 Jacksonville 14 24.1
44% 8 Tampa Bay 38 25.0, 6 Indianapolis 31 28.0
43% 31 New York Jets 21 22.7, 30 Houston 14 26.2
43% 23 New York Giants 13 20.2, 15 Philadelphia 7 22.9
43% 9 Buffalo 31 23.7, 3 New Orleans 6 27.2
39% 25 Washington 17 19.0, 10 Seattle 15 23.2
34% 32 Las Vegas 36 25.8, 13 Dallas 33 41.1
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
8 0.67 6 1.06 0 0.00 1 1.20 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 15 8 9.1 0.88
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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