prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred 84% 11 Los Angeles Rams 37 31.2, 30 Jacksonville 7 15.1 72% 8 Indianapolis 31 31.5, 32 Houston 0 19.9 70% 7 Kansas City 22 25.6, 17 Denver 9 16.3 63% 14 Philadelphia 33 27.7, 28 New York Jets 18 21.5 63% 5 Tampa Bay 30 31.2, 27 Atlanta 17 22.0 60% 20 Miami 20 22.7, 22 New York Giants 9 17.0 59% 10 Seattle 30 23.9, 13 San Francisco 23 19.5 59% 6 Arizona 33 23.7, 21 Chicago 22 18.5 51% 23 Washington 17 31.4, 31 Las Vegas 15 30.9 44% 18 Pittsburgh 20 22.5, 4 Baltimore 19 24.3 43% 1 New England 14 19.1, 2 Buffalo 10 22.5 40% 15 Dallas 27 23.5, 9 New Orleans 17 28.7 38% 29 Detroit 29 22.8, 19 Minnesota 27 27.7 36% 24 Los Angeles Chargers 41 22.1, 16 Cincinnati 22 29.1 results by prob (number of games, actual/expected): 50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100% 5 1.07 6 0.81 2 1.40 1 1.19 0 0.00 0 0.00 total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 14 9 8.8 1.02 actual/expected = 1 -- model right on actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected) actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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