prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
84% 11 Los Angeles Rams 37 31.2, 30 Jacksonville 7 15.1
72% 8 Indianapolis 31 31.5, 32 Houston 0 19.9
70% 7 Kansas City 22 25.6, 17 Denver 9 16.3
63% 14 Philadelphia 33 27.7, 28 New York Jets 18 21.5
63% 5 Tampa Bay 30 31.2, 27 Atlanta 17 22.0
60% 20 Miami 20 22.7, 22 New York Giants 9 17.0
59% 10 Seattle 30 23.9, 13 San Francisco 23 19.5
59% 6 Arizona 33 23.7, 21 Chicago 22 18.5
51% 23 Washington 17 31.4, 31 Las Vegas 15 30.9
44% 18 Pittsburgh 20 22.5, 4 Baltimore 19 24.3
43% 1 New England 14 19.1, 2 Buffalo 10 22.5
40% 15 Dallas 27 23.5, 9 New Orleans 17 28.7
38% 29 Detroit 29 22.8, 19 Minnesota 27 27.7
36% 24 Los Angeles Chargers 41 22.1, 16 Cincinnati 22 29.1
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
5 1.07 6 0.81 2 1.40 1 1.19 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 14 9 8.8 1.02
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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