prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
84% 13 Tennessee 20 31.7, 31 Jacksonville 0 16.0
81% 4 Green Bay 45 26.2, 21 Chicago 30 14.5
67% 16 Denver 38 26.7, 28 Detroit 10 15.5
66% 10 New Orleans 30 29.8, 29 New York Jets 9 21.8
66% 9 Seattle 33 27.1, 32 Houston 13 17.2
66% 5 Kansas City 48 40.1, 30 Las Vegas 9 22.9
64% 22 Los Angeles Chargers 37 26.1, 24 New York Giants 21 19.8
59% 18 Minnesota 36 27.2, 17 Pittsburgh 28 22.7
58% 12 Dallas 27 24.0, 23 Washington 20 21.0
58% 2 Tampa Bay 33 27.3, 3 Buffalo 27 22.9
48% 14 San Francisco 26 23.9, 20 Cincinnati 23 24.4
41% 27 Atlanta 29 20.2, 25 Carolina 21 24.7
41% 11 Los Angeles Rams 30 21.7, 8 Arizona 23 27.9
36% 26 Cleveland 24 19.8, 6 Baltimore 22 25.3
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
6 0.87 6 1.27 0 0.00 2 1.21 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 14 10 9.0 1.11
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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