prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
85% 2 Green Bay 24 30.0, 26 Cleveland 22 16.5
84% 11 Dallas 56 27.5, 23 Washington 14 17.5
76% 15 Philadelphia 34 26.8, 25 New York Giants 10 17.5
68% 4 Kansas City 36 27.3, 17 Pittsburgh 10 18.1
63% 5 Tampa Bay 32 28.8, 24 Carolina 6 20.5
59% 31 New York Jets 26 24.8, 30 Jacksonville 21 20.3
59% 27 Atlanta 20 25.7, 28 Detroit 16 20.6
58% 14 Tennessee 20 25.5, 12 San Francisco 17 22.4
48% 10 Los Angeles Rams 30 24.8, 18 Minnesota 23 25.6
47% 6 Indianapolis 22 25.9, 13 Arizona 16 27.0
46% 29 Las Vegas 17 27.3, 16 Denver 13 31.1
43% 20 Cincinnati 41 22.5, 7 Baltimore 21 24.7
41% 3 Buffalo 33 19.0, 1 New England 21 23.0
35% 32 Houston 41 22.3, 21 Los Angeles Chargers 29 28.9
35% 19 Miami 20 18.6, 9 New Orleans 3 26.1
17% 22 Chicago 25 14.6, 8 Seattle 24 24.8
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
8 0.67 4 0.77 1 1.32 3 0.80 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 16 8 10.4 0.77
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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