prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
84% 12 San Francisco 23 31.6, 30 Houston 7 15.5
84% 1 New England 50 31.4, 32 Jacksonville 10 10.8
83% 4 Buffalo 29 31.5, 26 Atlanta 15 16.1
82% 8 Seattle 51 29.0, 28 Detroit 29 15.1
79% 6 Green Bay 37 31.1, 20 Minnesota 10 21.6
75% 11 New Orleans 18 27.4, 25 Carolina 10 17.6
69% 3 Tampa Bay 28 33.1, 31 New York Jets 24 19.4
66% 18 Pittsburgh 26 25.9, 24 Cleveland 14 19.1
63% 21 Chicago 29 23.2, 27 New York Giants 3 16.7
60% 14 Philadelphia 20 24.8, 23 Washington 16 21.2
59% 13 Tennessee 34 24.1, 15 Miami 3 19.7
57% 22 Los Angeles Chargers 34 24.9, 17 Denver 13 22.5
43% 9 Los Angeles Rams 20 22.1, 7 Baltimore 19 25.9
41% 19 Cincinnati 34 20.8, 2 Kansas City 31 24.3
41% 16 Arizona 25 22.6, 10 Dallas 22 27.7
32% 29 Las Vegas 23 23.4, 5 Indianapolis 20 42.5
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
5 0.68 5 1.23 2 1.30 4 1.20 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 16 12 11.1 1.08
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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