prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
84% 3 Buffalo 27 34.2, 30 New York Jets 10 15.4
80% 5 Tampa Bay 41 31.4, 23 Carolina 17 17.0
66% 12 Tennessee 28 28.1, 31 Houston 25 19.0
65% 21 Minnesota 31 25.6, 19 Chicago 17 20.1
58% 10 New Orleans 30 25.0, 26 Atlanta 20 20.8
58% 2 Kansas City 28 22.7, 18 Denver 24 19.4
48% 25 Washington 22 20.8, 27 New York Giants 7 21.6
46% 24 Cleveland 21 22.4, 20 Cincinnati 16 23.3
45% 29 Las Vegas 35 33.3, 22 Los Angeles Chargers 32 36.2
45% 11 Dallas 51 23.7, 15 Philadelphia 26 25.3
42% 16 Miami 33 18.8, 1 New England 24 22.4
41% 9 Seattle 38 21.4, 13 Arizona 30 25.2
34% 14 San Francisco 27 19.7, 8 Los Angeles Rams 24 26.1
30% 17 Pittsburgh 16 19.3, 7 Baltimore 13 27.3
27% 28 Detroit 37 20.3, 4 Green Bay 30 30.2
24% 32 Jacksonville 26 17.5, 6 Indianapolis 11 31.0
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
8 0.45 3 1.01 4 0.34 1 1.19 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 16 6 10.3 0.58
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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