prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
71% 5 Philadelphia 29 27.2, 22 Jacksonville 21 19.7
65% 21 Dallas 25 25.5, 29 Washington 10 18.4
64% 15 San Francisco 24 22.4, 13 Los Angeles Rams 9 17.6
62% 7 Green Bay 27 22.8, 9 New England 24 16.9
61% 10 Atlanta 23 29.8, 20 Cleveland 20 25.3
60% 1 Buffalo 23 27.8, 3 Baltimore 20 25.5
59% 23 New York Giants 20 21.2, 18 Chicago 12 19.6
58% 12 Las Vegas 32 33.5, 28 Denver 23 28.3
49% 2 Kansas City 41 22.7, 6 Tampa Bay 31 22.8
47% 19 Seattle 48 26.9, 26 Detroit 45 27.6
44% 16 Cincinnati 27 22.1, 4 Miami 15 23.2
43% 8 Arizona 26 22.8, 24 Carolina 16 24.1
38% 30 Los Angeles Chargers 34 22.5, 32 Houston 24 27.2
37% 25 Minnesota 28 18.8, 17 New Orleans 25 24.5
26% 27 Tennessee 24 17.5, 11 Indianapolis 17 26.0
21% 31 New York Jets 24 16.6, 14 Pittsburgh 20 28.0
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
7 0.76 6 1.06 3 0.45 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 16 8 9.9 0.80
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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