prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
76% 22 Los Angeles Rams 24 25.4, 29 Carolina 10 17.3
64% 9 Indianapolis 34 23.9, 25 Jacksonville 27 16.3
64% 6 New England 38 26.3, 23 Cleveland 15 20.8
64% 5 Philadelphia 26 24.2, 18 Dallas 17 19.2
63% 11 Seattle 19 29.5, 16 Arizona 9 24.1
56% 19 Los Angeles Chargers 19 21.5, 28 Denver 16 20.4
48% 13 Atlanta 28 22.2, 7 San Francisco 14 22.5
44% 1 Buffalo 24 26.3, 2 Kansas City 20 27.3
41% 10 Cincinnati 30 22.2, 15 New Orleans 26 24.3
39% 20 New York Giants 24 22.5, 4 Baltimore 20 25.4
39% 12 Minnesota 24 23.3, 14 Miami 16 26.2
36% 30 Pittsburgh 20 18.4, 3 Tampa Bay 18 25.4
29% 31 Washington 12 16.6, 24 Chicago 7 24.5
21% 27 New York Jets 27 17.5, 8 Green Bay 10 29.6
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
4 0.45 7 0.91 3 0.44 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 14 6 8.9 0.67
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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