prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
74% 6 Cincinnati 42 28.0, 30 Carolina 21 17.0
74% 2 Kansas City 20 33.1, 15 Tennessee 17 19.5
70% 3 Philadelphia 29 30.0, 32 Houston 17 19.6
65% 10 Tampa Bay 16 23.8, 22 Los Angeles Rams 13 17.7
64% 8 New England 26 23.7, 17 Indianapolis 3 17.5
62% 7 Minnesota 20 23.6, 26 Washington 17 21.3
58% 4 Baltimore 27 26.5, 12 New Orleans 13 25.0
48% 27 Jacksonville 27 35.3, 16 Las Vegas 20 36.3
48% 5 Seattle 31 26.5, 14 Arizona 21 26.7
37% 28 Detroit 15 24.7, 21 Green Bay 9 29.0
37% 20 Miami 35 19.5, 23 Chicago 32 23.2
36% 24 Los Angeles Chargers 20 24.3, 13 Atlanta 17 31.4
26% 19 New York Jets 20 17.6, 1 Buffalo 17 28.7
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
3 0.62 6 0.79 4 1.03 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 13 7 8.3 0.84
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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