prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred 81% 2 Kansas City 27 35.4, 26 Jacksonville 17 17.5 73% 20 New York Giants 24 27.4, 32 Houston 16 17.1 70% 11 San Francisco 22 28.4, 21 Los Angeles Chargers 16 20.4 69% 15 Tennessee 17 20.7, 31 Denver 10 13.8 66% 13 Miami 39 28.7, 25 Cleveland 17 21.5 60% 10 Tampa Bay 21 25.7, 5 Seattle 16 23.8 59% 29 Pittsburgh 20 22.6, 14 New Orleans 10 21.3 47% 22 Green Bay 31 21.6, 8 Dallas 28 22.0 43% 24 Indianapolis 25 32.0, 16 Las Vegas 20 37.2 40% 30 Carolina 25 22.8, 18 Atlanta 15 25.0 35% 12 Arizona 27 20.3, 23 Los Angeles Rams 17 24.6 33% 27 Detroit 31 21.3, 19 Chicago 30 31.0 22% 9 Minnesota 33 17.8, 1 Buffalo 30 31.1 15% 28 Washington 32 16.5, 3 Philadelphia 21 28.8 results by prob (number of games, actual/expected): 50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100% 4 0.87 6 0.76 2 0.66 2 0.60 0 0.00 0 0.00 total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 14 7 9.4 0.74 actual/expected = 1 -- model right on actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected) actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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