prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
83% 4 Dallas 27 35.7, 32 Houston 23 14.1
79% 2 Buffalo 20 28.7, 14 New York Jets 12 16.9
73% 1 Kansas City 34 25.2, 31 Denver 28 16.8
72% 5 Cincinnati 23 30.3, 19 Cleveland 10 20.4
72% 3 Philadelphia 48 28.1, 27 New York Giants 22 20.2
62% 10 San Francisco 35 22.9, 13 Tampa Bay 7 18.4
61% 9 New England 27 24.7, 15 Arizona 13 21.8
60% 6 Baltimore 16 22.3, 25 Pittsburgh 14 20.6
49% 24 Los Angeles Rams 17 35.0, 11 Las Vegas 16 35.9
48% 20 Los Angeles Chargers 23 25.0, 12 Miami 17 25.3
45% 16 Detroit 34 27.4, 8 Minnesota 23 28.0
25% 29 Carolina 30 19.1, 7 Seattle 24 29.7
20% 30 Jacksonville 36 16.8, 18 Tennessee 22 26.1
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
3 0.00 3 1.63 5 1.08 2 0.61 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 13 8 8.8 0.91
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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