prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
78% 2 Buffalo 32 30.5, 12 Miami 29 18.3
74% 1 Kansas City 30 33.7, 32 Houston 24 20.2
73% 10 Minnesota 39 27.9, 28 Indianapolis 36 19.7
67% 15 New Orleans 21 25.6, 22 Atlanta 18 20.4
64% 20 Green Bay 24 24.1, 24 Los Angeles Rams 12 19.0
63% 31 Denver 24 21.6, 17 Arizona 15 18.0
63% 3 Philadelphia 25 29.1, 23 Chicago 20 22.2
59% 16 Los Angeles Chargers 17 23.6, 19 Tennessee 14 22.4
58% 5 Cincinnati 34 22.9, 18 Tampa Bay 23 21.5
55% 25 Pittsburgh 24 20.5, 27 Carolina 16 19.9
52% 11 Las Vegas 30 37.0, 8 New England 24 35.6
42% 9 San Francisco 21 23.6, 7 Seattle 13 24.8
36% 21 Cleveland 13 21.8, 6 Baltimore 3 26.4
35% 29 New York Giants 20 17.0, 26 Washington 12 22.0
33% 14 Detroit 20 21.3, 13 New York Jets 17 27.6
30% 30 Jacksonville 40 20.5, 4 Dallas 34 28.6
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
5 1.42 8 0.77 3 1.33 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 16 11 10.3 1.07
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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