prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
61% 13 Seattle 17 31.6, 24 Denver 16 24.2
60% 26 Washington 28 30.3, 32 Jacksonville 22 23.6
60% 8 Baltimore 24 32.8, 29 New York Jets 9 26.4
57% 14 Philadelphia 38 31.8, 28 Detroit 35 29.6
55% 17 New Orleans 27 30.4, 25 Atlanta 26 28.8
54% 22 Chicago 19 28.4, 12 San Francisco 10 27.0
51% 16 Minnesota 23 31.7, 7 Green Bay 7 31.3
49% 1 Tampa Bay 19 31.1, 10 Dallas 3 31.3
48% 18 Los Angeles Chargers 24 44.4, 15 Las Vegas 19 45.6
46% 21 Miami 20 27.2, 5 New England 7 28.6
46% 4 Kansas City 44 30.0, 9 Arizona 21 31.5
44% 20 Pittsburgh 23 28.0, 19 Cincinnati 20 30.0
43% 23 Cleveland 26 26.5, 27 Carolina 24 29.1
43% 2 Buffalo 31 28.8, 6 Los Angeles Rams 10 31.0
40% 31 Houston 20 28.5, 3 Indianapolis 20 34.1
38% 30 New York Giants 21 23.5, 11 Tennessee 20 32.7
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
11 0.67 5 0.99 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 16 7 9.0 0.78
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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