prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
79% 2 Buffalo 34 31.9, 13 Miami 31 18.2
63% 6 San Francisco 41 27.0, 7 Seattle 23 21.3
63% 5 Cincinnati 24 24.0, 11 Baltimore 17 19.7
61% 3 Dallas 31 26.3, 17 Tampa Bay 14 23.3
56% 22 Jacksonville 31 24.4, 12 Los Angeles Chargers 30 23.6
34% 21 New York Giants 31 22.0, 8 Minnesota 24 28.8
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
1 1.79 4 1.18 1 1.27 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 6 5 3.9 1.29
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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