prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
78% 4 Philadelphia 38 29.2, 18 New York Giants 7 19.8
77% 1 Kansas City 27 34.0, 22 Jacksonville 20 18.5
56% 6 San Francisco 19 25.4, 3 Dallas 12 24.5
29% 5 Cincinnati 27 20.5, 2 Buffalo 10 28.4
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
1 1.78 0 0.00 3 0.88 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 4 3 2.8 1.06
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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