prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
92% 1 St. Louis 34 38.0, 30 Cleveland 3 6.5
89% 9 Indianapolis 31 37.1, 31 Cincinnati 10 14.1
80% 6 Miami 16 24.5, 29 Philadelphia 13 10.7
73% 16 Pittsburgh 13 18.5, 25 Atlanta 9 11.7
72% 19 Tampa Bay 6 18.9, 26 Chicago 3 12.6
63% 14 Oakland 24 17.2, 17 New York Jets 23 14.1
54% 18 New England 24 19.9, 8 Denver 23 19.2
53% 20 Kansas City 35 17.1, 24 Baltimore 8 16.6
52% 11 Minnesota 40 27.4, 5 San Francisco 16 27.0
47% 10 Seattle 26 19.0, 4 Buffalo 16 19.5
38% 13 Dallas 38 26.4, 3 Washington 20 30.1
36% 27 New York Giants 31 13.0, 21 New Orleans 3 16.7
36% 22 Green Bay 31 16.8, 15 San Diego 3 21.1
28% 23 Detroit 24 18.4, 7 Carolina 9 26.1
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
4 1.42 4 0.40 3 0.92 2 1.18 1 1.09 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,num_right/expected): 14 9 0.96
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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