prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
91% 7 Seattle 37 33.2, 31 Cincinnati 20 8.1
84% 15 New York Jets 12 20.7, 29 Arizona 7 6.2
83% 2 Jacksonville 30 24.8, 20 Atlanta 7 9.9
72% 25 Baltimore 41 16.7, 30 Cleveland 9 10.5
69% 14 Denver 33 18.6, 27 San Diego 17 12.6
68% 23 Tampa Bay 31 15.9, 28 New Orleans 16 10.9
65% 10 Miami 17 23.5, 13 Tennessee 0 18.2
62% 22 Carolina 33 19.5, 26 Philadelphia 7 16.7
60% 9 Minnesota 27 22.5, 8 Dallas 17 20.1
57% 18 Pittsburgh 27 20.1, 21 San Francisco 6 18.8
45% 6 Indianapolis 25 24.5, 4 Kansas City 17 25.6
32% 24 Chicago 14 16.6, 17 Green Bay 13 22.4
30% 11 Detroit 31 18.8, 1 St. Louis 27 25.7
26% 12 Buffalo 34 26.3, 3 Washington 17 35.0
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
2 0.89 7 1.08 2 0.69 2 1.20 1 1.10 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,num_right/expected): 14 10 1.02
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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