prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred 85% 1 Jacksonville 6 24.4, 19 Baltimore 3 7.8 84% 16 Tennessee 24 29.2, 30 Cincinnati 14 12.8 81% 2 St. Louis 35 33.9, 18 Carolina 10 19.3 80% 15 Oakland 28 20.7, 26 San Diego 9 8.6 71% 7 Minnesota 27 24.1, 24 Chicago 24 17.1 68% 4 Indianapolis 27 24.7, 20 New York Giants 19 18.6 67% 11 Dallas 27 21.5, 17 Green Bay 13 16.3 62% 9 Seattle 20 23.1, 13 Denver 17 19.8 62% 5 Buffalo 23 19.7, 10 Miami 3 16.4 35% 29 New Orleans 24 21.1, 25 San Francisco 6 26.0 24% 27 Philadelphia 35 20.9, 12 Washington 28 30.5 23% 22 Tampa Bay 17 10.5, 3 Kansas City 10 19.9 22% 21 New York Jets 24 11.9, 6 New England 17 21.5 18% 28 Arizona 23 8.8, 8 Detroit 19 22.3 10% 31 Cleveland 16 4.3, 14 Pittsburgh 15 24.0 results by prob (number of games, actual/expected): 50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100% 0 0.00 5 1.23 4 0.33 6 0.80 0 0.00 0 0.00 total results (num_games,num_right,num_right/expected): 15 9 0.80 actual/expected = 1 -- model right on actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected) actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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