prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
85% 1 Jacksonville 6 24.4, 19 Baltimore 3 7.8
84% 16 Tennessee 24 29.2, 30 Cincinnati 14 12.8
81% 2 St. Louis 35 33.9, 18 Carolina 10 19.3
80% 15 Oakland 28 20.7, 26 San Diego 9 8.6
71% 7 Minnesota 27 24.1, 24 Chicago 24 17.1
68% 4 Indianapolis 27 24.7, 20 New York Giants 19 18.6
67% 11 Dallas 27 21.5, 17 Green Bay 13 16.3
62% 9 Seattle 20 23.1, 13 Denver 17 19.8
62% 5 Buffalo 23 19.7, 10 Miami 3 16.4
35% 29 New Orleans 24 21.1, 25 San Francisco 6 26.0
24% 27 Philadelphia 35 20.9, 12 Washington 28 30.5
23% 22 Tampa Bay 17 10.5, 3 Kansas City 10 19.9
22% 21 New York Jets 24 11.9, 6 New England 17 21.5
18% 28 Arizona 23 8.8, 8 Detroit 19 22.3
10% 31 Cleveland 16 4.3, 14 Pittsburgh 15 24.0
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
0 0.00 5 1.23 4 0.33 6 0.80 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,num_right/expected): 15 9 0.80
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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