prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
90% 1 St. Louis 43 37.3, 27 New Orleans 12 13.4
84% 11 Minnesota 35 28.5, 28 San Diego 27 12.8
79% 18 Tennessee 33 22.5, 30 Cleveland 21 10.9
79% 13 Washington 20 33.5, 26 Philadelphia 17 20.9
75% 19 Green Bay 20 24.7, 29 San Francisco 3 16.1
71% 15 Detroit 21 23.9, 23 Chicago 17 16.7
71% 2 Jacksonville 30 19.6, 16 Baltimore 23 13.0
70% 3 Indianapolis 13 24.3, 8 New York Jets 6 17.5
67% 4 Buffalo 17 20.6, 12 New England 7 15.9
66% 22 Carolina 34 22.3, 24 Atlanta 28 17.4
60% 10 Dallas 20 19.3, 7 Miami 0 17.4
58% 6 Kansas City 37 19.7, 14 Oakland 34 18.4
23% 25 Arizona 34 7.5, 21 New York Giants 24 15.8
22% 17 Tampa Bay 16 10.6, 5 Seattle 3 20.2
14% 31 Cincinnati 27 8.7, 20 Pittsburgh 20 25.5
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
2 1.70 3 1.48 7 0.94 2 0.59 1 1.11 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,num_right/expected): 15 12 1.08
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
Back to: Bassett Football Model Home Page
Please email comments or questions to bfm@BassettFootball.net