prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
84% 2 Jacksonville 20 22.7, 23 Pittsburgh 6 7.2
78% 1 St. Louis 34 32.7, 20 Carolina 21 21.2
71% 24 Atlanta 35 24.5, 28 New Orleans 12 17.3
65% 27 San Diego 23 19.9, 30 Cleveland 10 15.4
64% 25 Arizona 21 17.2, 26 Philadelphia 17 13.5
62% 16 Detroit 33 31.3, 17 Washington 17 28.0
62% 3 Indianapolis 37 22.0, 13 Miami 34 18.7
61% 29 Cincinnati 44 22.3, 31 San Francisco 30 19.6
61% 18 Baltimore 41 19.0, 19 Tennessee 14 16.7
60% 15 Green Bay 35 18.2, 21 Chicago 19 16.1
60% 7 Tampa Bay 24 18.9, 10 Minnesota 17 16.8
52% 12 Oakland 30 20.6, 9 Seattle 21 20.1
44% 8 Kansas City 16 20.9, 11 Denver 10 22.0
42% 14 New England 13 18.3, 4 Dallas 6 19.7
25% 22 New York Giants 41 9.7, 6 New York Jets 28 17.3
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
3 0.60 8 1.62 3 0.89 1 1.19 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,num_right/expected): 15 12 1.24
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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