prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
90% 1 St. Louis 30 37.4, 29 New Orleans 14 15.1
83% 8 Dallas 20 22.7, 26 Philadelphia 10 8.9
74% 2 Jacksonville 27 22.0, 12 Denver 24 14.5
72% 4 Indianapolis 20 27.6, 15 New England 15 19.7
71% 7 Baltimore 31 18.8, 23 Pittsburgh 24 12.5
69% 18 Washington 28 27.6, 25 Arizona 3 20.9
68% 6 Tampa Bay 23 17.2, 14 Detroit 16 12.3
67% 28 Cincinnati 44 26.2, 30 Cleveland 28 20.6
66% 5 Kansas City 31 27.0, 9 Minnesota 28 21.6
60% 16 New York Jets 28 19.1, 17 Miami 20 16.6
38% 21 Tennessee 21 21.3, 11 Oakland 14 24.8
33% 19 Carolina 33 19.2, 10 Green Bay 31 24.7
24% 31 San Francisco 26 16.0, 22 Atlanta 7 26.2
21% 20 New York Giants 19 10.8, 3 Buffalo 17 21.8
20% 27 San Diego 19 11.5, 13 Seattle 16 23.6
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
0 0.00 7 1.09 6 0.66 2 1.16 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,num_right/expected): 15 10 0.92
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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