prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
86% 5 Indianapolis 29 33.0, 31 Cleveland 28 14.7
82% 8 Baltimore 22 35.7, 28 Cincinnati 0 19.9
82% 1 St. Louis 34 29.3, 18 Chicago 12 14.4
79% 14 Washington 26 33.8, 30 San Francisco 20 20.7
62% 7 Denver 17 24.3, 21 Detroit 7 21.0
62% 6 Buffalo 13 17.4, 17 New England 10 14.6
59% 9 Minnesota 34 26.6, 16 New York Giants 17 24.7
50% 27 Atlanta 37 18.7, 26 Arizona 14 18.6
44% 23 Pittsburgh 30 21.3, 19 Carolina 20 22.5
39% 12 New York Jets 38 17.3, 13 Miami 31 19.9
38% 22 Tampa Bay 29 12.5, 11 Green Bay 10 15.6
37% 15 Seattle 23 19.3, 4 Kansas City 14 22.9
33% 20 Tennessee 41 16.3, 3 Jacksonville 14 21.6
21% 29 New Orleans 31 13.9, 10 Dallas 24 25.9
20% 25 San Diego 23 12.4, 2 Oakland 20 25.5
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
3 1.21 6 0.53 3 0.42 3 1.20 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,num_right/expected): 15 8 0.78
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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